Assessment at 08:00
At 08:00 this morning Israel and Lebanon time the cease-fire called for in UN security Resolution 1701 entered into force. Here then is an initial assessment of the current situation from my/our (Israeli living in Haifa) point of view.
A respite from the Katyusha rocket attacks and the attendant air raid siren alarms will be very welcome. We had about 10 alarms yesterday in Haifa, some in very close succession and it’s very wearing. Many Israelis and Lebanese have suffered.
Will the ceasefire hold? Maybe, maybe not, but the more meaningful question is whether the other clauses in the latest UN Security Council Resolution 1701 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4785963.stm will be implemented. If the previous UN Security Council Resolution 1559 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3623956.stm had been fully implemented (including the dismantling of the Hezbollah military) this war would never have broken out. We find it difficult to believe that the ineffectual, inexperienced and underfinanced Lebanese army will be able (even if they want to) to engage with the highly trained, highly armed and fearless Hezbollah fighters. According to the Lebanese constitution, the Lebanese army answers to the Lebanese president Emile Lahoud, a staunch supporter of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. Are they going to disarm Hezbollah? Are French, Italian and Turkish soldiers going to risk their lives to confront Hezbollah? I’d like to believe it but I’d be surprised.
Yesterday Lebanon’s Prime Minister Siniora called a meeting of his government to discuss the disarming of Hezbollah. The Lebanese chief of staff declared that he’s not going to send his troops into the south unless Hezbollah is disarmed first. The Hezbollah members of the government said that disarming Hezbollah is out of the question (although it’s part of both above-mentioned well-intentioned UN resolutions) and walked out of the meeting. It’s not so simple in the Middle East –this isn’t Switzerland or Norway.
“Oh ye of little faith” I hear some of you cry at Israeli skepticism. Believe me, we will be more than happy to be proved wrong. The residents of northern Israel have been in air raid shelters for a month and over 100 Israelis have been killed. We’ve had quite enough, thank you.
The Israeli government has accepted the UN Security Council resolution and is prepared to give it a try. Between us, even if the implementation is 80% and not 100% that will be liveable with too. But if it falls through, we’ll be back to square one and back to war.
A respite from the Katyusha rocket attacks and the attendant air raid siren alarms will be very welcome. We had about 10 alarms yesterday in Haifa, some in very close succession and it’s very wearing. Many Israelis and Lebanese have suffered.
Will the ceasefire hold? Maybe, maybe not, but the more meaningful question is whether the other clauses in the latest UN Security Council Resolution 1701 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4785963.stm will be implemented. If the previous UN Security Council Resolution 1559 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3623956.stm had been fully implemented (including the dismantling of the Hezbollah military) this war would never have broken out. We find it difficult to believe that the ineffectual, inexperienced and underfinanced Lebanese army will be able (even if they want to) to engage with the highly trained, highly armed and fearless Hezbollah fighters. According to the Lebanese constitution, the Lebanese army answers to the Lebanese president Emile Lahoud, a staunch supporter of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. Are they going to disarm Hezbollah? Are French, Italian and Turkish soldiers going to risk their lives to confront Hezbollah? I’d like to believe it but I’d be surprised.
Yesterday Lebanon’s Prime Minister Siniora called a meeting of his government to discuss the disarming of Hezbollah. The Lebanese chief of staff declared that he’s not going to send his troops into the south unless Hezbollah is disarmed first. The Hezbollah members of the government said that disarming Hezbollah is out of the question (although it’s part of both above-mentioned well-intentioned UN resolutions) and walked out of the meeting. It’s not so simple in the Middle East –this isn’t Switzerland or Norway.
“Oh ye of little faith” I hear some of you cry at Israeli skepticism. Believe me, we will be more than happy to be proved wrong. The residents of northern Israel have been in air raid shelters for a month and over 100 Israelis have been killed. We’ve had quite enough, thank you.
The Israeli government has accepted the UN Security Council resolution and is prepared to give it a try. Between us, even if the implementation is 80% and not 100% that will be liveable with too. But if it falls through, we’ll be back to square one and back to war.
posted by David Lisbona | 6:47 PM
3 Comments:
It is ironic that in the month or so of warfare Hezbollah with thier low tech weapons, managed to kill more soldiers than civilians while Israel with the most precise and accurate waepons in the world managed to kill many more civilians than militia men... go figure!!
I'm sorry, but I can't see the irony in that. I CAN see the cynicism in hezbollah crying crododile teers over civilian casualties resulting from israel attacking hezbollah positions placed in the middle of villages, even under houses and schools. G figure than one...
Perhaps its becoz Hezbollah have not and will not publish details of their battlefield casualties.
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